China Has Far More Nuclear Warheads Than U.S. Officials Know

According to the latest Pentagon report on China’s growing nuclear force, it is likely to have 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030, adding at least 100 to its stockpile over the past year, and now has more than 600 as reported by Politico.

The latest estimate of China’s nuclear arsenal comes amid uncertainty over the incoming Trump administration’s China policy, which is expected to build on the current administration’s tough stance.

President-elect Donald Trump will use trade tariffs and economic pressure to try to exert leverage over China, and he is seeking to fill his administration with China hawks, from China-sanctioned State Department nominee Marco Rubio to incoming national security adviser Rep. Mike Walz (R-Fla.).

China’s nuclear weapons estimate is part of an annual report the Pentagon sends to Congress on China’s military ambitions, which tracks the growth of the Chinese navy, air force and corruption within the Chinese defense ministry.

“I certainly expect them to continue to expand and modernize their force after that,” a U.S. Defense Department official told Politico, which published the report.

The report said China maintains a “no first use” policy in any future conflict — meaning it would not launch nuclear weapons first — and instead focuses more on deterring a massive counterstrike.

The increase in nuclear warheads comes amid a broader focus on developing new intercontinental ballistic missiles in numbers and survivability to improve its nuclear-capable missile forces, the defense official told Politico.

They are also showing some interest in developing a new conventional intercontinental ballistic missile that could hit Hawaii, Alaska and the United States, all amid an expected surge in Chinese defense spending.

China’s defense spending has long been opaque, with U.S. and Western officials cautioning that China — like Russia — does not publicly disclose the true size of its defense budgets.

The Pentagon estimates that China is spending at least 40% more than it declares in its overall defense budget, which equates to about $330 billion to $450 billion in total defense spending for 2024.

The U.S. defense budget remains the world’s highest, with President Joe Biden’s defense budget request of $880 billion, which is expected to rise once Congress makes additions in the coming weeks.

While the United States and China have resumed some mid-level military talks over the past year, China’s defense minister declined to meet with U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin during a defense leaders’ meeting in Laos last month, calling the move “regrettable” and “a setback for the entire region.”

While China has made great strides in modernizing its military, corruption remains a problem, with the defense official, who spoke to Politico, saying that the People’s Liberation Army continues to struggle with deep-rooted corruption problems.

The U.S. defense official said 15 senior Chinese military officials and defense industry executives were removed from their posts for corruption last year, many of whom were responsible for overseeing equipment development projects related to China’s nuclear and conventional land-based missile modernization.

China has also fallen behind in material progress when it comes to developing a viable logistics plan for deploying its ships, aircraft and troops far from the mainland, potentially limiting its ability to project power beyond the South China Sea.

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